Mathematicians rely on numbers, but finding words to explain different levels of certainty has stymied everyone from the ...

John Quiggin does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their ...

Life is uncertain. None of us know what is going to happen. We know little of what has happened in the past or is happening now outside our immediate experience. Uncertainty has been called the ...

Adam Hayes, Ph.D., CFA, is a financial writer with 15+ years Wall Street experience as a derivatives trader. Besides his extensive derivative trading expertise, Adam is an expert in economics and ...

One of the big changes in election coverage that emerged in 2016 was the widespread use of predictions expressed as probabilities. Once the private vice of data geeks, just about everyone in the ...

What Are Risk-Neutral Probabilities? Risk-neutral probabilities are probabilities of potential future outcomes adjusted for risk, which are then used to compute expected asset values. In other words, ...

All investing involves uncertainty and probability. Most of the time we don't actually estimate numerical probability, but it's always there. When we buy a stock or a mutual fund or an ETF, we never ...

In my last article in the August issue, we discussed how total return is often used to compare different asset classes, products and strategies, even though the comparisons mean very little. It's ...