This book's organization : read me first! -- Introduction : models we believe in -- What is this stuff called probability? -- Bayes' rule -- Inferring a binomial proportion via exact mathematical ...

Pupil dilation provides a physiological readout of information gain during the brain's internal process of belief updating in the context of associative learning.

Adam Hayes, Ph.D., CFA, is a financial writer with 15+ years Wall Street experience as a derivatives trader. Besides his extensive derivative trading expertise, Adam is an expert in economics and ...

Casey Murphy has fanned his passion for finance through years of writing about active trading, technical analysis, market commentary, exchange-traded funds (ETFs), commodities, futures, options, and ...

Bayesian inference is a statistical method of inductive reasoning based on the reassessment of competing hypotheses in the presence of new evidence. Conceptually similar to the scientific method ...