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How A Random System Can Actually Be Predictable
The balls in a Galton board fall down randomly. Any time they come to a junction they can take any number of paths and it's almost impossible to accurately predict every ball's trajectory. However, the system as a whole is predictable. How can this be? How can random systems actually be predictable?
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Trump vs. Biden on inflation. This chart compares the first 48 months of each presidency using the same starting framework. Trump’s line runs from January 2017 to January 2021. Biden’s line runs from January 2021 to January 2025. Both series are shown as cumulative inflation, starting at 0% in Month 1. That means the chart is measuring how much prices increased over each president’s term up to the same point in time, rather than comparing raw CPI levels on different calendar dates. So when you s
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Trump vs. Biden on inflation. This chart compares the first 48 months of each presidency using the same starting framework. Trump’s line runs from January 2017 to January 2021. Biden’s line runs from January 2021 to January 2025. Both series are shown as cumulative inflation, starting at 0% in Month 1. That means the chart is measuring how much prices increased over each president’s term up to the same point in time, rather than comparing raw CPI levels on different calendar dates. So when you s
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